The Fugue

It’s actually still election day eve here, but by the time most of you read this it will be November 4. I don’t care who you are or how you want to vote, it’s important that we all vote. I don’t care if you know your candidate(s) will lose. I don’t even care if you want to vote for SUPERDELL! Get out and vote, if you haven’t already.

Then if you have geek tendencies you might enjoy doing what I’ll be doing tomorrow night: compare the excellent statistical predictions from fivethirtyeight.com with how things actually play out. He has an hour-by-hour guide to election night at Newsweek.

I took an American History course from an Economics professor, and I remember clearly the sinking feeling in my gut when he discussed two-party politics. I’ve never much cared for the two-party system, but he had a very convincing argument that the two-party system is pretty much an inevitability. What’s more, the two parties are more alike than not. I don’t have the knowledge or eloquence to convince you like he did me, but I can say that it all comes down to the normal distribution (you know, bell curves). The two parties differ on a few points, polarizing points that people are passionate about (abortion, gun control, Iraq, etc.), but are otherwise very similar.

I think we’re seeing that right now in the presidential race. I think we also see it in technology (I think it’s part of the reason Windows is so entrenched). I think it’s a blessing and a curse. It’s a blessing because the top of the curve is more likely to be kind of right than very wrong. That is the fundamental tenet of democracy, after all. It’s a curse because the masses have a whole lot of inertia and better, more perfect policies and candidates often don’t stand a chance.

Whether you believe all that statistical mumbo jumbo I’m throwing at you or not, you probably have had that sinking feeling of wondering whether your vote matters. You look at the state where you live that overwhelmingly votes opposite your preference, and wonder why you should even show up to vote since your vote “doesn’t count”.

Well, you’re right and you’re wrong. Sure, you may be right on the money that you voting for candidate A won’t keep candidate B from winning your state or county or district or nation or whatever. But it’s not all about winning. Winning is of course your first hope. But even in losing your vote can make a difference. Statistics are collected. Not just collected, but analyzed. Analyzed by the people who want to be reelected. Analyzed by the media. Analyzed by who knows who else. Isn’t there a difference between winning by a slim margin and winning by a landslide? Don’t you think the winner in the former case might be more receptive to opposing views, knowing that the scales could easily turn in the next election? If libertarians (for example) make a decent showing in an election, even though it’s only 1/4 of the votes, don’t you think the elected officials will take a closer look?

Your vote does matter, whether or not it is decisive in the outcome of the election. Also, it’s important to vote for who you think is the best candidate. Do you like Ron Paul but don’t believe he has a chance at winning? Vote for him anyway. If you live in a place where your vote may indeed be decisive, then you may want to vote strategically if you feel there is a “lesser of two evils” situation. But if you feel, even slightly, that your vote won’t be decisive, then vote your conscience. Only when people vote and vote their consciences, can the truth about how America feels about candidates and policies come forth.

Be heard. Be involved. Get over yourself. So your vote isn’t decisive. Whoop-de-doo! Your vote does matter.

Tuesday is Election day. Over the past month I’ve gotten some flyers in the mail and the occasional campaigner will stop by. Mind you, this is for the city council race. I’m glad people are taking an interest in local politics enough to actually have some kind of race and present their platforms and whatnot.

But one candidate has really crossed the line. In the past month I’ve received 4 copies of the same flier urging me to vote for $CANDIDATE, a visit from a pair of campaigning ladies, and now today a letter from someone I’ve never met telling me how she endorses $CANDIDATE.

When the campaigning ladies came to the door (on a Sunday afternoon), they started to give my wife their speel but decided she wasn’t worthy and asked if I was home. She, knowing I had no interest in talking to campaigning ladies, hesitated at which point they made a sorry joke about was I watching a football game or something (I was watching General Conference). So I relucantly came to the door, at which point the insulting campaigning ladies gave me their speel and then started into their manipulation scheme. Did I have any concerns (so that they could tell me how awesome $CANDIDATE would save the day)? Sure I do. “How does $CANDIDATE feel about general aviation? Does he support the local airport?” I was briefly feeling sorry for them so I added, “and the spaceport”, because I figured they’d have a canned response about the spaceport. But they didn’t know how to answer and they flustered a moment and then said that $CANDIDATE would call or email me to let me know his position on the issue. He never did, but that didn’t stop his campaign from sending me 4 fliers and a letter (and who knows what else in the next 3 mailing days until the election).

In contrast, another candidate came campaigning. He came personally, with some other guy. He didn’t miss a beat when I asked him about the airport, and when I mentioned the spaceport he was astute to pick up that I was a student at the University and we had a nice little chat about wouldn’t it be nice if there were actual jobs to keep smart people like me here in Las Cruces. That, my friends, was successful campaigning.

I might have voted in this election. I’m not aware of any major issues on the table, so I might not have voted (shame on me). But thanks to $CANDIDATE I will definitely be voting in this election. I will go to the polling station and cast my vote for that smart candidate. Even if I didn’t have him to vote for, though, I’d go and cast my vote for anyone except $CANDIDATE because the last thing I want is to see this face representing me on the city council.

Now, just to be clear, I am not voting only on emotion here. Someone that annoying probably holds political views I don’t agree with. The political views I have been able to glean from his campaign materials (and it hasn’t been much) seem to indicate we’re at odds politically. But, that only reinforces my position which is primarily a (probably justified) reaction to his overzealous campaign.